Padres Win 11th Straight at PNC Park

The Pirates lose 3 in a row for the first time since June in Baltimore.  This is not good.

Huge Crowd 8-11-2012

Third largest crowd in PNC history tonight!

Follow-up Post

Let's follow up on some issues previously raised in the seasonticketsbaby weblog.

1. The theme of the blog -- Is there a new experience at PNC Park?  Will the Pirates remain competitive until the end of the season?  Was the season ticket purchase worth it?  Yes, yes, and yes, so far.  People are excited all over town; the Pirates continue to impress on the field; and my tickets are great -- really nice seats and easy to re-sell when needed.
2. Roster additions -- Are players like Wandy Rodriguez, Travis Snider, and Starling Marte contributing?  Starling Marte is like a McCutchen clone.  He hits the ball really hard and can fly.  Snider has contributed with the bat as well.  Marte is clearly not a leadoff hitter, and I probably wouldn't call Snider a number 2 hitter, but between the two of them and Neil Walker, they can hold down the 1, 2, and 5 spots in my lineup any day.
3. Starting Pitching -- Who will be the stopper and who will come back to Earth?  Burnett elevates his play (except for tonight) as McDonald struggles.  McDonald is at least having these half-good outings, which is an improvement, but still not verygood.  He'll show you 3 or 4 very sharp innings -- followed by, preceded by, or sandwiched between 2 or 3 awful innings.  So who knows.... Wandy has failed to impress so far.  He hasn't pitched that bad, but just hasn't  pitched particularly well.  He's pitched about as well as Kevin Correia, but the latter seems to end up finding ways to win while Wandy pitches just poorly enough to lose.
4. Cash Money Maker -- Am I able to sell some of my tickets and recover a percentage of the initial cost of the season tickets?  Most definitely.  This has become a popular ticket this summer and I can easily move all my weekend games for more than I paid -- but less than face value.  So far, I've had plenty of friends who want them, and a few that went to craigslist.  All have enjoyed Section 107 Row R.  I've been selling them for less than regular ticket price, but more than I paid for the season ticket price, so it's a deal for both parties.  I just completed an email transfer to Paige for Sunday afternoon's game against the Padres, which was very easy to do.  



The Esseys just posted this picture from my seats tonight!

5. Muhfuckin' Dippin' Dots -- What about the "Bobblehead Factor?"  Since PNC Park opened a decade ago the "Pirate experience" has been all about the side shows, the promotions, the fireworks, and beauty of the ballpark -- not about competitive professional sports.  I do see some of that changing.  Sure, people still go crazy for Bucco Plinko and constantly flow up and down the aisles to go get more hot dogs to stuff in their fat faces -- and that's fine.  I still want moms, children, and grandparents to  be able to go to the games.  I don't want an NFL atmosphere at all.  But I do see more of a focus on the game from most fans.  I see a lot more Pirate flags -- the big ones -- waving in the infield box seats after homeruns.  I see a lot more kids carrying homemade signs than I used to.  That's an important difference -- it shows that the kids are into the winning, into the players, enjoying the Zoltan symbol. 

This was easy

The real outstanding question, though is this -- was the bar set too high by the Pirates success in June and July?  Are too many people thinking playoffs or bust at this point?  There are so many questions.  They're the same questions that plagued me in May and June when I was deciding whether or not to buy the tickets.  A 4 or 5 game losing streak can take you out of a playoff spot in a hurry.  Would people stop wanting my tickets if that happened?  Would I want to stop going to the games?  How far would they have to fall before my interest starts to drift?  There are a lot of things going on around the Burgh in August and September.  Will the Pirates continue to be one of them?

They could start by getting a freaking hit tonight, Jesus!

2012 Season Graph Updated

Leveling off is ok, but are we starting to see a downward trend?  The blue line (games above/below .500) has remained either steady or sloped upward for most, if not all, of the season.  Run differential (the yellow line) was slowly getting worse for the first third of the season.  Then the offense switched on around May 25th and that line started going way up.  But has it peaked?  Will it come down again?  Turn back up?  Or will things just kind of stay level for awhile? What do you think?

Click on the graph to get a closer look.

Lame

The last 18 years of my life flashed before my eyes as James McDonald was allowing seventeen thousand runs in the 5th inning.  At least I caught a ~54 dollar buzz.  For christ's sake, though, 4 beers for 36 dollars, I could pop a couple pills of ecstasy instead, and then even a Pedro Alvarez strike out would feel oh so good!  Hah, sorry, this is my first ever drunken blog post.  Actually, I hate the word "blog," so this is my very first drunken weblog posting -- it's a journal, on the internet...a web...log.   At least the free t-shirt was good tonight. And the offense was huge again.  On a night when Neil Walker and Andrew McCutcheon went a combined 0 for 9, your Buccos still scored 9 runs.  And for all the ladies in SeasonTicketsBaby.com land, Jalapeño Hannah won the pierogi race, giving her 13 wins for the year, tied for first. Anyway, no more games for me this weekend, tickets sold for Saturday and Sunday. Time to start winning again!  I'll be back on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Regardless, I had a great time and it was an entertaining game!  And Juliet found her missing wallet, so that's a win.

Season Tickets Baby, Update

SeasonTicketsBaby.com update: Currently enjoying the Pirates' longest homestand of the season, 11 games against three Western Division opponents:

This free shirt Friday's a winner!

• Monday - I had exchanged this pair for 2 extras on the last homestand 
• Tuesday - Went to this game 
• Wednesday - Went again 
• Thursday - Sold to friend 
• Friday - Going tonight (free shirt Friday)
• Saturday (Styx + Zambelli) - Sold, thank God
• Sunday - Sold
• Monday - Going
• Tuesday - Going
• Wednesday - Going
• Thursday - Sold

So I will be using 7 out of 11 (6 attended, 1 exchanged) and selling the other 4 games.  Perfect!

Notes:

Aisle Seats - I definitely appreciate having the aisle seats.  I can dart right up for a nine dollar Magic Hat or Sam Adams Summer Ale during the Pierogi race 'n'at.  But, man, the flow of fans, especially at crowded games, can get annoying.  Having the aisle to my left means that anyone going up or down during an inning will walk directly between me and the field of play.  It's not just a problem of the aisle seat, though.  These in-game snackers, late arrivals, and stupid girls who just can't find their friends, are getting in everyone's way.  It's actually kind of fun when the inevitable berating begins.

This one girl stood on one step in the aisle, during the inning, looking both left and right (which are two totally different sections) for her friends.  She scoured every row.  Meanwhile there have been like six pitches thrown already.  (Yes, I'm switching verb tenses.) So she pulls out her phone, while still standing on the step, to call her friends to help her find the seats.  Normally the usher -- my regular guy is great, by the way -- would deal with this problem immediately, but he was occupied.  So she's holding her nachos in one hand and pink phone in the other hand, standing one step in front of my row. Finally people start hootin' and hollerin', and she turns around, disgusted at us, and says, "I'm trying to find my seats."  Oh we know you can't find your seats. That's the freakin' problem!  I'll try to snap some pictures of the most egregious offenders.  I have to give the ushers credit, though, for doing their best to address this problem...

Beers - Most games I tell myself I just won't have any beer because it's just so damn expensive.  I try to decide ahead of time -- I'm either all in or all out.  By "all in," I mean that if I am going to have a beer or two, I'm not going to let the price stop me.  So unless I'm prepared to buy two or three, I'll plan on just not drinking any.  Now, outside the stadium, on the Clemente Bridge side, outside of Atria's restaurant, you can get 3$ cans with weeknight 2$ specials.  So you can get 4 of these Straub cans outside for the same price as a Miller Light pounder inside. I'm wondering if I can just grab a couple of those cans at game time and shove them in my pockets.  It's not like they strip search you on the way in.  The other idea is just a soft pack cooler with a small false bottom -- and I could lay 4 beer cans along the bottom.

What do you think?

Sloppy Game, But a Win

Boy that was an ugly game, rife with errors, poor baserunning, moderate rain, player ejections -- and a bunch of homeruns by the Pirates, which is to be expected these days.  Neil Walker is legit. He leads all NL secondbasemen in offensive WAR (wins above replacement), which means he is the best hitter in the league at his position.  Robinson Cano is the only AL second basemen with a better oWAR.

If I felt like doing the research right now, I would investigate the following question: What infielder/outfielder duo from the same team has the highest WAR and oWAR?  Austin Jackson & Miguel Cabrera?  Melky Cabrera & Buster Posey?  Walker & McCutcheon have got to be right there near the top.  And that's a second baseman and a centerfielder, two guys who can also flash a little leather -- not a pair of sluggers at first base and right field striking out 150 times and costing 15 million dollars a year.

Think about this. McCutcheon is only 25; Walker 26. Pedro Alvarez is 24 and Starling Marte just 23.  Imagine those four guys playing out the primes of their careers over the next five to seven years at PNC Park, hitting 2 through 5 in the lineup.  That's legit.

Less than 20 games remaining to break the losing streak... 

Also, why doesn't Clint Hurdle pinch hit sooner for his starting pitchers?  Didn't Correia hit for himself tonight and then get replaced the next inning?  He hit in the bottom of the 6th and then didn't come out to pitch in the 7th, right?  Why wouldn't they send up Barmes to hit and double switch him with Mercer?  Because Clint Hurdle knew ol' number 69 was going to hit his first ever major league homer?  I doubt it.  Just because the bench was a player down with the demotion of Presley?  I guess...

Slip Slip Slidin or Playoff Bound?

Remember this play last year?  The end of the 19-inning game against the Braves, the longest game in either franchise's history, that ended on a blown call by the home plate umpire?  It was a loss that many associate with (or even blame for) the start of the Pirates' miserable collapse last year.  The collapse that began with 10 straight losses.


The 2012 Pirates, on the other, have been completely resilient -- so far.  They bounced back after a 3-game sweep in Baltimore to start a long stretch of interleague play in June.  A.J. Burnett has emerged as a true Stopper, ending 4 2-game losing streaks, and preventing several others. Andrew McCutcheon is still hitting .370 and it's August.

But are people still expecting a collapse?  Maybe "expect" is too strong of a word.  Do people fear a collapse?  I think many fans are wary.  Maybe "collapse" is also too strong of a word.  No one thinks Andrew McCutcheon is going to hit .216 the rest of the way, or that they will compile a .286 winning percentage over the last 2 months.

But do fans think it's more likely that they will win 83 games and fall out of contention -- or win 93 games and compete for the division?

Do fans expect to see a .500 team the rest of the way -- which is about what they've been over the last 2 weeks or so -- or a .600 team that truly contends for the division title?

Or are people trying not to expect anything at all, and just enjoy the moment?

As I mentioned almost a month ago in this blog's second post, I thought the Pirates had 2 goals for the second half: first, a winning season, second, to make the playoffs.  But really it's more complicated now.  Winning 82 games is almost a lock, so playoffs is the focus.  As Seasonticketsbaby.com reader Brian Knudsen pointed out, if you do make the playoffs, you don't want to find yourself in a 1 game winner take all wild card game.  Sure, as a Pirate fan I would take what basically amounts to a one game play-in match, but that's a scary proposition.  So let's look at all the possibilities.

The lowest accomplishment the Pirates could have this year is just having a winning season.

The next rung up would be winning the second wild card and earning a 1 game playoff on the road.

If you do make the playoffs as wild card, though, getting the first wild card and earning a home game could be a huge advantage.  With the Pirates record at home this year, and the way some of their pitchers have performed at PNC Park, I would be excited at the proposition of a one game playoff at home.  So that first wild card is a real step up from the second wild card.

The ultimate regular season goal of course would be a division championship.  I still think that is well within the realm of possibility.  The Pirates have a fairly deep roster now with the moves they've made -- although some would say losing Brad Lincoln is a major strike against the pitching staff, and the Reds could be the best team in the National League or all of baseball.

So what am I really saying in this post?  I'm just kind of waffling around all the different possibilities -- of which there are many.  I guess the point is this:

1.  The Pirates have been resilient to every obstacle they've faced so far this year

2.  That's not guaranteed to continue and some people remain skeptical -- that's reasonable

3.  I guess my goal as a season ticket holder for the second half is to see meaningful, competitive games as far into September as possible.  So far, there's no reason to believe that isn't happening.

When I previewed the second half schedule and made some predictions, I figured the Pirates to win about 87 games, so that's where I will hold my prediction for right now.

Homestand Continues Against Arizona

Last night the guys in the row behind me at the game were full of baseball chatter.  It was great.  One of them observed, for example, as Stephen Drew had two strikes on him in his third at bat, that the hits he had in his first two at bats both came with two strikes. He promptly collected his third two-strike hit a second later.  Anyway, one of these guys pointed out, as the 8th inning started, with Jason Grilli on the mound and the Pirates leading by 1, that the Bucs hadn't lost a game all year that they led after 7 innings.  His buddy immediately responded that this was "not the best time to make light of that fact."

To be clear, I don't believe that this man's comment had anything to do with the outcome of the game.  In fact, I would think that thousands of people over the last month have pointed out that the Pirates haven't lost a game all season that they led after 7 innings.  The bullpen's perfect late inning record has been discussed, printed, tweeted, blogged, displayed on TV, and mentioned by fans at the stadium and at home on their couch, and none of those other times did it cause Jason Grilli to blow the game in the 8th inning like he did last night.

The point is it's just one game.  Jeff Karstens was not sharp, and yes the bullpen totally blew it.  But assuming this doesn't become a trend, it's really no big deal.  Travis Snider got 3 hits, although he struggled defensively.  Starling Marte crushed a homerun to center field.  He ain't no lead off hitter, that's for sure. Andrew McCutcheon raised his average to .372 and drove in 2 runs.  That's a whole lot of production from the outfield.  

Next I have a real treat for you.  A caller to 93.7 the Fan asked why the Pirates don't try to steal more bases.  Sigh.  It reminded me of the greatest sports sound clip of all time, Earl Weaver giving his profanity laden philosophy on team speed.  It's so good.  Check it out.  If you enjoy that, here's a whole bunch of them!

Actually Going to Game

I'm actually going to the game tonight!  What with all the blog posts and ticket peddling, all the mouse clicks on baseballreference.com and pushing tickets on facebook ... I forgot I actually have season tickets to go to all these games!  Sweet!

I'm sporting a new t-shirt today, a unique, very dark solid grayish tone, with a classic yellow "P" logo, provided by my girlfriend -- senior designer at Albert's Gifts -- one of the Strip's top wholesalers and merchandise producers.

should have made Zoltan shaped shadow

Rankings

Let's do something usually reserved around these parts for Steeler fans.  Let's check the rankings!

USAToday's baseball power rankings have the Pirates at 6th overall.  The Reds take their number 1 spot, with the Rangers, Yankees, Nationals, and Braves rounding out the top 5.  They actually dropped one spot from last week.  Comment: "11-game homestand can define the rest of their season."

SportsIllustrated gets their rankings from fangraphs.com, which is a very cool site.  Their rankings are little different.  They are "based not on the current standings or a gut feeling about team quality, but on how well they've performed at the underlying traits that predict future performance better than wins and losses."  Their top five goes: Nationals, Rangers, Cardinals, Yankees, Diamondbacks.  The Pirates come in 17th, just behind the Milwaukee Brewers.  Usually I'm a "modern stats" guy, but come on.

Here's the headline on the SportingNews MLB rankings page: "MLB power rankings: Orioles, Pirates offer thrifty alternative to big-dollar deals." Their top 6 goes Reds, Nationals, Rangers, Yankees, Braves, Pirates. A.J. Burnett gets a whole paragraph in their write up. It reads, "Being traded to Pittsburgh not only was the best thing that could have happened to the veteran right-hander, but the move has paid off just as much for the Pirates, too, and never more so than last week. Burnett came within four outs of pitching his second no-hitter last Tuesday at Wrigley Field, then delivered an even more impressive outing Sunday. With the Pirates needing a win to avoid being swept in a showdown series at Cincinnati, Burnett came through by holding the Reds to three hits and two runs in 8 2/3 innings as the Pirates won, 6-2. “I’ve never had an ace before,” said manager Clint Hurdle, a title Burnett never had to worry about in his time with the Yankees."

No surprises in BleacherReport's rankings.  They rank the Pirates 6th, calling Andrew McCutcheon "the front-runner for NL MVP right now" and "a major part of the Pirates being in a position to contend."  (Duh.)  They have the same teams as everyone else in the top five: Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, then Pirates.

ESPN's rankings also have the Reds on top, followed by the Nationals, Yankees, Rangers, Braves -- and Pirates.   They also praise Burnett, pointing out that he "is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA in three starts against the NL Central-leading Reds this season"

What's my conclusion?  Power rankings are really boring and are based almost exclusively on overall record.  Every site has the same 6 teams in the top 6 -- except for fangraphs.com which is totally insane.  At least they're doing something other than ranking the teams based solely on their  record...

Notes from the Opponent's Broadcast

I liked the way I presented my thoughts in the notes format of my previous post and thought I would do that again.  The Pirates are exactly two thirds of the way through the season. So I decided to watch the Diamondbacks broadcast of this game, just to get a different perspective, and here's what I've noticed so far.

• They are lauding Andrew McCutcheon, deservedly so, as the National League MVP.  They loved his base running in the bottom of the 4th when he snagged both second and third base due to laziness by the Arizona fielders.
• They started calling this game Erik Bedard's finest moment of the season some time around the 5th inning.  That's also pretty accurate, at least so far.  In the sixth inning they said Bedard had "found his happy place."  Later he said, "Erik Bedard has turned into Sandy Koufax tonight." One of them gushed in the 7th, he's pitching like "he's Randy Johnson tonight."  Just as a point of comparison in terms of hyperbole, when Starling Marte gunned down Paul Goldschmidt at second base the announcer said, "I don't think I've ever seen anyone get thrown out by that much."  I guess Mark Grace is a wise ass? Later in the game, as the camera panned over the Roberto Clemente Bridge he posited, "Some thought they would lose 120 games this year."
• The announcers called the Pirates one of the 3 biggest surprises of the season.  Both of them, however, liked Oakland as a bigger surprise, and cited Washington's run atop the NL East as a more extreme surprise.  
• Once the score was 1-0 in the fifth, the announcer started pointing out that you can't fall behind by too much more -- with the way the Pirates have been pitching and playing at home.  Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes (not to be confused with the Killer B's) promptly recorded back-to-back hits to put the pressure on Wade Miley.  When Miley got out of the inning with no runs allowed, after the Pirates had runners on second and third and no outs, they predicted a possibly momentum shift.
• The trivia question was: Name the 5 Pirates who have won an MVP since 1950.  Can you name them...?
• They pointed out, during a Garret Jones at bat, that the Pirates have already slugged 15 more homeruns this year than all of last year.  
• "You can see why they're 15 games over .500 with their [fundamentals.] They're hustling, they're pitching, hitting,"  one of them quipped after Clint Barmes laid down a sac bunt. "This is a baseball town and they've finally got some good baseball to watch."
• They showed a graphic in the 8th inning highlighting the Diamondbacks worst record in the league in 1 run games and the Pirates best record in the league in 1 run games.
• At lesat twice the cameras showed Pirates players on the basepaths flashing the Z sign (McCutcheon and Travis Snider), yet the announcers failed to explain.  It's possible I missed an earlier explanation, who knows...
• "Is that the look these days, to tuck your ears in to your hat?  I missed that in my days..." Grace quipped after pointing out how well Josh Harrison had played at third base.

Notes From a Road Trip

The Pirates are returning from a fairly successful road trip, their longest of the season, and I'm home from mine.   A few weeks ago I broke down the Pirates second half schedule into 4 distinct parts, and they performed better than I expected in the first part.  I missed some of the action against the Cubs and Reds, but here are some of my thoughts on the trending topics.

"The Big Payback" -- I'm fine with no "retribution" for the bean balls.  In my opinion, when you're behind, when you're losing, when you're in second place, when you're the little brother, you don't hit somebody back.  If you open the second or third games of the series by drilling their leadoff hitter, you risk getting McDonald or Burnett ejected -- or even suspended.  If anything, Josh Harrison could have charged the mound instead of yapping, but still, he and McCutchen both, the two guys who got beaned, both homered later in the series.  Here's the thing. You have 6 more games left against the Reds, so save it.  If you win a couple in a row; if you're leading by half a dozen runs late in a game one night; if you've got a relief pitcher you don't mind having suspended for a few days... Hit Joey Votto after he comes back.  Send his ass back to the DL!

"The Stopper" -- A.J. Burnett is fully established as the Ace and the Stopper -- a crucial component of a winning team.  He's ended 2 little losing streaks in the last week alone.  It's not just about being the Ace, the best pitcher on the staff.  You also need to be the Stopper, the guy who prevents a 2-game losing streak from becoming something much worse.  Burnett is 8-0 after a loss and 4-0 after two losses.  

"I'm (not) lovin' it" -- McDonald is still totally struggling. But he actually looked better against Cinci in his most recent start -- limited walks and not a ton of balls hit hard.

"Team Effort" -- No RBIs from Pedro Alvarez or Andrew McCutchen on the whole trip until the end of the last game -- and they still went 6 and 4.  That's a plus, not a minus.  

"Hardware" -- Andrew McCutchen won player of the month again in July, his second consecutive month, establishing himself as the leading MVP candidate in the National League.  He might be the best overall player in baseball.  Burnett is  making a possible Cy Young bid.  He's only had 2 bad starts all season, and continues to win big games in big moments.  We should probably start talking about a Clint Hurdle Manager-of-the-Year possibility as well.

"SeasonTicketsBaby" -- The first post in this weblog announced the arrival of a "new experience" at PNC Park.  How is that situation evolving?  The Pirates are 9-6 since my season tickets started.  They continue to play better than any team in the league since May 25th, and have the best home record in baseball.  They're almost a lock for a winning season, so the goal has been set higher.  They definitely look like a team that will stay competitive into September and maybe into the Fall.  I've sold 15% of my overall tickets, and recovered 33% of my overall price.

Run Differential
Games Over/Under .500
Playoff Pace (90 Wins)

"The Fort" -- Michael McKenry can actually hit.  Let's face it.  He has consistently hit, with power -- but as a back-up player -- all season.  At one point recently he did start 3 out of 4.  He seems to be splitting time now rather than backing up Rod Barajas.  Can he continue to post a .950 OPS and get maybe half or two thirds of the at-bats at catcher?  Why not?  He even hit fifth one night against the Reds. Just like all the other Pirates stats that starting tilting upward around May 25th, this isn't a phase, or a stretch, or a run, it's turned into something consistent.