Zol-TAN

At the beach working on my Zol-TAN as Buccos prepare for first place Cinci this weekend.

Down the Ocean Hon'

Down the ocean, hon!

Free WiFi at the Fenwick Islander Motel, an excellent one-hit shutout from AJ Burnett last night, and a burst of offense in the 8th inning today against the Cubs -- life is good.  I'm soaking up the sun at the beach this week with friends and family while Neal Huntington and other GMs around the league are playing real life fantasy baseball.  I just went to Hooters to catch some of this game on TV, and I caught the rest online via FirstRowSports -- the best way to stream sports online, live, and free.  I'm just north of Ocean City, MD.

A little late drama, but the jolly roger raises nevertheless.  Another series win.  Another road win.  Back up to 16 games over .500 and the first place Reds are just around the corner!

Cool Graph

Check out this chart I've been putting together.  Interesting slopes.  The Pirates's run differential took a much longer time to go positive than their winning percentage.  What does that mean?  Well, generally speaking, run differential is actually a better indicator of how good a team really is, compared to wins and losses.  So, when you're winning games by 1 or 2 runs, but losing games by 4 or 5 runs, you're probably not as good a team as your record might indicate.  

What does it mean though???

The green line indicates approximate playoff pace -- based on 90 wins being a playoff team.  Wins is all that really matters in the long run, but when it comes to the "long run," run differential is a better predictor of how many wins you're going to have.  

A team's Pythagorean winning percentage can be calculated based on how many runs they've scored and allowed.  Using a Pythagorean formula projection, you can plug in a team's current totals and get a decent prediction for the rest of the season.

What does the formula predict for the Pirates?  90 wins.  Exactly 90.  That's playoff bound...