Check out this chart I've been putting together. Interesting slopes. The Pirates's run differential took a much longer time to go positive than their winning percentage. What does that mean? Well, generally speaking, run differential is actually a better indicator of how good a team really is, compared to wins and losses. So, when you're winning games by 1 or 2 runs, but losing games by 4 or 5 runs, you're probably not as good a team as your record might indicate.
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| What does it mean though??? |
The green line indicates approximate playoff pace -- based on 90 wins being a playoff team. Wins is all that really matters in the long run, but when it comes to the "long run," run differential is a better predictor of how many wins you're going to have.
A team's Pythagorean winning percentage can be calculated based on how many runs they've scored and allowed. Using a Pythagorean formula projection, you can plug in a team's current totals and get a decent prediction for the rest of the season.
What does the formula predict for the Pirates? 90 wins. Exactly 90. That's playoff bound...
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