Remember this play last year? The end of the 19-inning game against the Braves, the longest game in either franchise's history, that ended on a blown call by the home plate umpire? It was a loss that many associate with (or even blame for) the start of the Pirates' miserable collapse last year. The collapse that began with 10 straight losses.
The 2012 Pirates, on the other, have been completely resilient -- so far. They bounced back after a 3-game sweep in Baltimore to start a long stretch of interleague play in June. A.J. Burnett has emerged as a true Stopper, ending 4 2-game losing streaks, and preventing several others. Andrew McCutcheon is still hitting .370 and it's August.
But are people still expecting a collapse? Maybe "expect" is too strong of a word. Do people fear a collapse? I think many fans are wary. Maybe "collapse" is also too strong of a word. No one thinks Andrew McCutcheon is going to hit .216 the rest of the way, or that they will compile a .286 winning percentage over the last 2 months.
But do fans think it's more likely that they will win 83 games and fall out of contention -- or win 93 games and compete for the division?
Do fans expect to see a .500 team the rest of the way -- which is about what they've been over the last 2 weeks or so -- or a .600 team that truly contends for the division title?
Or are people trying not to expect anything at all, and just enjoy the moment?
As I mentioned almost a month ago in this blog's second post, I thought the Pirates had 2 goals for the second half: first, a winning season, second, to make the playoffs. But really it's more complicated now. Winning 82 games is almost a lock, so playoffs is the focus. As Seasonticketsbaby.com reader Brian Knudsen pointed out, if you do make the playoffs, you don't want to find yourself in a 1 game winner take all wild card game. Sure, as a Pirate fan I would take what basically amounts to a one game play-in match, but that's a scary proposition. So let's look at all the possibilities.
The lowest accomplishment the Pirates could have this year is just having a winning season.
The next rung up would be winning the second wild card and earning a 1 game playoff on the road.
If you do make the playoffs as wild card, though, getting the first wild card and earning a home game could be a huge advantage. With the Pirates record at home this year, and the way some of their pitchers have performed at PNC Park, I would be excited at the proposition of a one game playoff at home. So that first wild card is a real step up from the second wild card.
The ultimate regular season goal of course would be a division championship. I still think that is well within the realm of possibility. The Pirates have a fairly deep roster now with the moves they've made -- although some would say losing Brad Lincoln is a major strike against the pitching staff, and the Reds could be the best team in the National League or all of baseball.
So what am I really saying in this post? I'm just kind of waffling around all the different possibilities -- of which there are many. I guess the point is this:
1. The Pirates have been resilient to every obstacle they've faced so far this year
2. That's not guaranteed to continue and some people remain skeptical -- that's reasonable
3. I guess my goal as a season ticket holder for the second half is to see meaningful, competitive games as far into September as possible. So far, there's no reason to believe that isn't happening.
When I previewed the second half schedule and made some predictions, I figured the Pirates to win about 87 games, so that's where I will hold my prediction for right now.
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